October 13, 2019
US will be publishing retail sales, industrial output and housing data. Elsewhere important releases include: UK unemployment, wage growth, inflation and retail sales; Eurozone trade balance and industrial production; Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment; China Q3 GDP growth, trade figures, industrial output, consumer inflation and retail sales; and South Korea interest rate decision. Investors will also react to RBA and RBI meeting minutes.
In the US, retail sales are seen rising for the seventh straight month in September, while industrial output is forecast to fall from a year high as trade tensions bite. Other notable publications are housing starts and building permits, business inventories, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, NAHB Housing Market Index and overall net capital flows.
In the UK, figures from the ONS are expected to show unemployment to hold steady at its lowest since 1974 and wage growth to slow down from the previous month’s 11-year high. Additionally, inflation is seen picking up from August’s 33-month low. Investors will also turn their attention to retail trade, producer prices and retail price index. Elsewhere in Europe, key economic data include: the Eurozone industrial production, alongside construction output, trade balance and September's final inflation; Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index and wholesale prices; Italy foreign trade and factory orders; Turkey unemployment rate, retail sales and industrial activity; and Switzerland trade balance.
All eyes are on China’s Q3 GDP growth, as forecasts point to the weakest pace of economic expansion since 1992, amid ongoing trade war with the US. The country’s trade balance will also be in the spotlight, with markets expecting a fall in both exports and imports. Other important releases include foreign direct investment, consumer and producer prices, industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment. Consumer prices will probably rise to an over 1-1/2-year high of 2.9 percent, while producer prices should fall further into deflation territory, reaching an over-three year low. Meanwhile in Japan, investors will focus on consumer inflation and the final estimate of industrial production. The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of India will be releasing the minutes of their last monetary policy meetings. Other key data for Australia include employment figures and Westpac leading index; while in India analysts will be waiting for consumer inflation, wholesale prices and trade balance.
Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: New Zealand services NZ PSI and Q3 consumer inflation; South Korea and Hong Kong unemployment rates; and Singapore Q3 GDP growth advance estimate. The Bank of Korea is seen holding interest rates at current levels.
The third-quarter earnings season is expected to kick off with reports from the biggest US banks. Analysts anticipate the sector’s first year-over-year earnings per share decline in three years, as falling interest rates may have pressured net interest margins.
The US stock market will be closed on Monday for Columbus Day.